Toronto Maple Leafs' Alexander Kerfoot (15) has his shot blocked by Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen (31) during the third period (Karl B DeBlaker/AP)
There isn’t a foolproof way to predict at roughly the quarter mark of the season which teams will end up qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
However, auditing the standings at U.S. Thanksgiving helps give us a solid framework for understanding which teams are positioned well and which others need to pick up the pace throughout the winter months.
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Since last season was unconventional on several levels – realigned divisions, limited opponents on a repetitive schedule and a regular season that didn’t begin until January – there isn’t necessarily an abundance of data from 2020-21 we can apply to the current NHL campaign.
Looking back at previous seasons, though, we can begin to get a clearer picture of how the 2022 post-season brackets might shape up.
From the 2013-14 season to 2017-18, a whopping 62 of 80 of teams in a playoff spot at U.S. Thanksgiving wound up qualifying for a playoff spot.
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That works out to 77.5 per cent, which is significant, and it’s also in line with trends during full seasons in the salary cap era, regardless of divisional alignment.
The most recent time we had the familiar divisional alignment at U.S. Thanksgiving was back in 2019 during the 2019-20 regular season that was cut short by anywhere from 11-14 games – no team played more than 71 games and none fewer than 68 – after COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic.
Due to the circumstances surrounding the suspension of the regular season, an expanded playoff format was agreed upon with 12 teams from each conference afforded an opportunity to compete in the post-season. The top four teams in each conference were given a bye into the first official playoff round while teams ranked 5-12 competed in best-of-five series.
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Below you'll be able to compare the current standings to the 2019-20 standings at this time two years ago. Keep in mind, the 2021-22 season began towards the end of the second week of October when usually regular-season action gets underway early in the first week, which explains this year’s lower point totals.
In 2019-20, Boston maintained its spot atop the Atlantic and won the Presidents’ Trophy as the only team to reach 100 points that season. The Panthers and Islanders both went from second place at Thanksgiving to much more tenuous positions -- the Islanders were one point back of the East's second wild card spot at the 2020 pause (with two games in hand), while the Panthers were three points out of a playoff spot. Because of the unique bubble parameters the two teams played against each other in 2020's additional qualifying round with the Islanders coming out on top. Columbus was trailing by seven points in the wild-card race at Thanksgiving yet wound up holding the second wild-card spot at the pause and pulled off a qualifying round upset over Toronto.
Buffalo, New Jersey, Ottawa and Detroit were well on the outside looking in when the mashed potatoes and gravy were passed around the table and each had an early start to the off-season.
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Vegas and Colorado were wild-card contenders at Thanksgiving 2019 yet finished with the second- and third-best records in the West when the season was paused. The Oilers and Coyotes couldn’t maintain their strong starts. Edmonton failed to secure a bye and sat behind Vegas at the pause, while the Coyotes were four points out of the wild card when the season came to a halt in March. Both were eliminated in the qualifying round. The Sharks were above .500 and one point behind Vancouver at Thanksgiving, but all three California-based teams fell out of the race and didn't even qualify for the expanded playoffs.
Overall, when you take all of the above into consideration, teams like Carolina and Florida should feel confident about their positions this season. Have Ottawa, Montreal and the Islanders dug themselves too deep a hole to dig out of come the playoffs? It’s too early to worry about a team like the Bruins and Stars and, heck, even Detroit and New Jersey shouldn’t be written out of the playoff race. Kraken and Coyotes fans probably shouldn't love their post-season chances, unlike fans in Alberta where Calgary and Edmonton lead the Pacific.
On average, roughly three teams that are outside of the playoff picture on American Thanksgiving end up qualifying by the end of the season. Who are the teams best situated to make the climb in 2021-22?
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We use cookies to improve your experience. Learn More or change your cookie preferences. By continuing to use this site, you agree to the use of cookies.When trying to figure out which teams outrank each other in the NHL standings, you’ll come to realize that it can be a daunting task - even for the typical hockey fanatic.
I don’t have to go too far back when this didn’t hold true. Just last season, the Montreal Canadiens finished with 96 points in the standings, good for 14
You can then tell the newbie that 16 teams make the playoffs - 8 from each conference. Just remember, it’s not necessarily the top 8 in each that would necessarily qualify.
Where We Stand
To make matters worse, try bringing up the tie-breaker rule and you’d confuse yourself figuring out which of teams deserve to be ranked higher in the standings.
DIFF stands for Goal Differential in the NHL Standings. It is the difference between the number of goals scored by a team and the goals scored against them. If the value is positive, the team scored more goals on the opposition than they allowed against, throughout the season. If the value is negative, then the opposite holds true.
When this happens, the NHL applies a Tie-Breaking Procedure made up of 7 preceding rules (as of 2019-20). The DIFF stat applies in rule #6, which means it is less important than other elements.
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For this example, we are assuming that the Montreal Canadiens and Florida Panthers split their season series equally. That is, they've played head-to-head 4 times during the season and each team won 2 games in regulation. This means that rule #5 of the Tie-Breaking Procedure reached an impasse, allowing for rule #6 to apply – the DIFF stat.
When two teams are tied for Goal Differential, the next tie-breaker step (Rule #7) is to look at compare the “Goals For” of teams that are tied. The NHL will rule that a team with more “Goals For” earns a higher spot in the rankings.
In this example, both teams have equal goal differentials (DIFF), however the Montreal Canadiens scored 25 more goals than the Florida Panthers throughout the season. As a result, Canadiens would ranked above.
What Does Diff Mean In Hockey Standings?
Certain people will look at the DIFF stat and analyze each team’s offensive and defensive capabilities. In some cases, you’ll see a team score many “goals for” while also allowing lots of “goals against” – resulting in an even DIFF (ex: +1). Hockey analysts could use this stat to dive deeper into a team’s balance and structure. More specifically, they’ll analyze a team’s efficiency in offense, defense, goaltending, powerplay, penalty kills, etc.
So, although the DIFF stat does play a role in overall standings, it also paints a story about the performance of each team heading or missing out on the playoffs.
At this point, you might be asking yourself what are records for best and worst goal differentials set in the history of the NHL. Luckily, you won't need to ponder anymore, as I've provided these stats below:
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Needless to say the Canadiens were playoff contenders in 1976-77. In fact, they won the Stanley Cup that year - the first of 4 consecutive championships back then.
For one, outscoring your opponents will result in more team victories. And as a result, teams will rank higher in the standings, leading them to a Stanley Playoff berth.
Sometimes, the advantage of outscoring your opponents can be subtle. When a team is on the playoff bubble or fighting for home-ice advantage, any tie in NHL Standings can be settled by the DIFF stat (Goal Differential).
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Please log in again. The login page will open in a new tab. After logging in you can close it and return to this page.Winnipeg Jets' Pierre-Luc Dubois (80) and Boston Bruins' David Pastrnak (88) fight for position during third period NHL action in Winnipeg, Friday, March 18, 2022. (John Woods/AP)
Think of all the events that can affect an NHL team over the course of a season. A great player (or players) might sustain injuries that take a month or more to get better, teams can get hit by a flu-bug or perhaps a literal pandemic, you can have stretches against fully healthy or fully hurt opposing teams. You get lucky sometimes, and sometimes you don’t. Some nights you don’t get the calls. But over a large sample, it all comes out in the goal differential wash.
We all value different stats, and by this time of year, goal differential is the temple at which I worship to pick through which teams are
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